GGII cuts its China humanoid forecast to 50,000-plus units and sees 15% of makers gone within three years

Chinese research firm Gaogong Consulting (GGII) now expects China to ship more than 50,000 humanoid robots this year, below the more than 60,000 it forecast at the start of the year. General manager Zheng Liyao gave the figures at GGII's 2026 humanoid robot conference on Nov. 3, Yicai reported. Financing turned cold in the fourth quarter, GGII says, and it expects more than 15% of China's humanoid companies to go bust or be acquired within three years.

Volume is not where GGII's numbers show the squeeze. GGII still calls the lower forecast doubling growth, in a Chinese market it sizes at more than RMB 10 billion, and it puts global shipments near 60,000 units worth almost $2 billion, also double. The pressure is on price. GGII says joint-module prices fell about 30% this year, and it forecasts a price war through 2027:

Humanoid size	2026 price	GGII's 2027 forecast	Change
Under 1.2 m	RMB 20,000	RMB 18,000	−10%
1.2 m to 1.6 m	RMB 115,000	RMB 100,000	−13%
Over 1.6 m	RMB 268,000	RMB 234,000	−13%

On those numbers, the 2027 shakeout lands on companies that are already shipping. A maker that doubles its volume while its price drops by a tenth or more still has to pay for that growth, and it has to do so as investors pull back.

Nine months of funding, up to eight years of sales

GGII counts RMB 81.82 billion raised by Chinese humanoid makers in the first three quarters, plus RMB 14.83 billion for dexterous hands and other components. Set against a domestic market of more than RMB 10 billion this year, the money raised in nine months is worth up to about eight times what the whole market will sell in a year.

Zheng blamed the slower year on rollout. Deployments are mostly industrial, basic tasks are common but have not yet turned into a working business, and dexterous manipulation needs more real use cases. Demand is fragmented, there is no "killer" application, and hardware and software still don't fit together through common interfaces. That is why capital "has become rational" and is "de-bubbling," in Zheng's account. GGII expects 2027 to bring the sector's "first large-scale clear-out," with mid-tier companies narrowing their focus and the leaders widening their lead.

GGII's other growth line is exports, which it expects to double this year as well. Zheng listed what stands in the way abroad: product certification, safety compliance, data compliance and local service.