China's embodied AI deal count nearly halved in October, while the money fell 8%

Chinese embodied AI companies closed 33 funding deals worth RMB 10.105 billion in October, according to data from the tracker IT Juzi cited by the 21st Century Business Herald. In September there were 60 deals worth RMB 11.028 billion. The paper read the numbers as a cooling market: deal count "nearly cut in half," and "the industry has entered an adjustment cycle."

The money tells a different story from the count. The number of deals fell 45%, but the total fell about 8%. Divide the total by the count and the average October round comes to about RMB 306 million, up from about RMB 184 million in September. Investors made fewer bets in October and put more into each one.

The money fell after June, not in October

The paper also compares October with June, the peak, when IT Juzi counted 55 deals worth RMB 30.892 billion, an average of about RMB 562 million. Against that month, October's total is a third. But September's total was already close to October's. The money fell after June, and October did not take another step down; what changed in October was the number of companies getting it.

The same article sets the funding numbers against output. China's industry ministry expects humanoid production in the country to pass 100,000 units this year, after more than 40,000 in the first half. Counterpoint data cited by the paper show that more than 60% of the humanoids sold worldwide in the first half went to stages and labs, and less than a fifth to factories and warehouses. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology warned in an October report that bubble risk is building and expects a first round of shakeout within two to three years. The paper counts at least 20 Chinese robot companies that ran into operating trouble between February last year and September; CloudMinds was ordered into bankruptcy liquidation.

AgiBot co-founder Peng Zhihui put the investor test in one line: "Ten thousand units rolling off the line is a win for manufacturing. Ten thousand units on the job is a win for physical AI."

The average hides how the money is spread. If one or two rounds make up most of October's RMB 10.105 billion, the median deal shrank and the cooling is as broad as the paper says. If the money is spread across many mid-sized rounds, investors are still backing a long list of companies. IT Juzi's deal list for October would settle which.