JPMorgan sees 300,000 to 400,000 US-made humanoids by 2030, a forecast that leans on Tesla

JPMorgan's new forecast for American humanoid robots is mostly a forecast about one company. The bank expects U.S. production to reach 300,000 to 400,000 units by 2030 and about 1.5 million by 2035, Reuters reported on Nov. 12. The same report says that, apart from Tesla, most U.S. developers are targeting annual output of 10,000 to 30,000 units.

Four of the five platforms add up to 120,000

JPMorgan names five leading U.S. platforms: Tesla's Optimus, Agility Robotics' Digit, Boston Dynamics' Atlas, Figure AI's robots and Apptronik's Apollo. If the four that are not Tesla each reached the top of that band, they would build 120,000 a year, less than half of the forecast's low end. The other 180,000 to 280,000 would have to come from Tesla or from companies the bank does not name. That arithmetic reads the 2030 figure as annual output, which the coverage does not spell out.

The bank's case for growth rests on labor shortages, better economics and more factory capacity, with manufacturing, logistics and warehousing as the first users. It estimates humanoid costs are nearing parity with labor, and that a customer running robots across several shifts could save about $100,000 a year. It also says the Trump administration's finding that imported robotics and industrial machinery pose national security risks could bring tariffs or other measures that favor domestic production.

The bank's near-term picks are parts makers

JPMorgan does not treat the capacity as assured. "Near-term progress remains supply constrained, with a few binding bottlenecks: hands, actuators, the brain, and production capacity," it wrote. Its near-term picks are component suppliers: Timken, Robotis, Leader Drive, Orbbec and Cognex. It expects the market for parts such as actuators, motors and vision systems to approach $30 billion by 2035, and value to shift toward robot makers and platform integrators only over time.

China's forecasts run on a similar scale. In June, Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for China's annual humanoid shipments in 2030 to 446,000 units, from 262,000, counting only external sales, The Next Web reported. Beijing's 2026–2028 plan alone asks for capacity of 200,000 robots a year in the city.

Tesla is aiming far higher than JPMorgan. Elon Musk claimed in October that Tesla will be able to make 20,000 Optimus robots a week by the end of 2027, TechCrunch reported, about 1 million a year. A U.S. forecast that rests this heavily on one company is in effect a bet on how much of that target survives what Musk called a "somewhat bumpy" ramp.